What do election numbers tell us?

What do the numbers from Tuesday’s election tell us about Arkansas politics? For starters, voters haven’t lessened their support for President- elect Trump, and they haven’t switched their party preferences.

Trump won Arkansas for the third straight time, defeating Vice President Harris, 64.2 percent to 33.5 percent. Those numbers are similar to 2020, when Trump beat President Biden, 62.4 percent to 34.8 percent, and 2016, when he beat Hillary Clinton, 60.6 percent to 33.7 percent.

In fact, his percentage of the vote has grown each time.

Those results also are similar to statewide races occurring in recent years. Across the board, Republicans consistently finish in the 60s while Democrats bump their heads against a ceiling in the 30s.

Such was the case in the only statewide partisan race on the ballot this year. In the treasurer’s race, Republican Secretary of State John Thurston defeated Democrat John Pagan, 65.4 percent to 30.3 percent. The other 4.3 percent was won by Dr. Michael Pakko, the Libertarian economist.

Surely few voters spent much time deliberating on the state treasurer’s position. Many made their choices at whatever point they saw the “R” and the “D.”

Things haven’t changed much at the congressional district level, either, as all four Republican congressmen easily won re-election. Reps.

Rick Crawford and Bruce Westerman each won with 73 percent of the vote, while Rep.

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Steve Womack had almost 64 percent.

If there’s anything that stands out, it’s that Rep. French Hill won with 59 percent. His 2nd District covers central Arkansas including most of Little Rock, which has a lot of Democratic voters. Democrat Marcus Jones led in Pulaski County with 58.3 percent, but Hill dominated everywhere else, winning with 80.6 percent in White County, 70.5 percent in Saline County, and 66.4 percent in Faulkner County.

Jones, a decorated military veteran, was about as strong a candidate as the Democrats could have recruited. Nevertheless, he fared worse than two other strong candidates Democrats have run against Hill in the past. Those were then-state Rep. Clarke Tucker, whom Hill defeated in 2018, 52 percent-46 percent, and then-state Sen. Joyce Elliott in 2020. Hill won that race, 55 percent-45 percent.

Hill’s stronger showing this year is at least partly due to Republican state legislators redrawing his district after the 2020 census to make it more Republican friendly.

Regardless, he’s clearly getting stronger. Now that he’s approaching 60 percent, I don’t know who the Democrats could find to run against him next time. His only threat would come from a fellow Republican in a primary, but he’s done a good job of insulating himself against that.

As for the state Legislature, little changed in the balance of power. Republicans came into the election holding 29 of the Senate’s 35 seats. That’s where they will be when lawmakers meet in their regular session in January.

Democrats did narrow by one what had been an 82-18 Republican majority in the House of Representatives.

Diana Gonzales Worthen defeated Rep. DeAnna Hodges, R-Springdale, in House District 9 in northwest Arkansas, the state’s only majority Latino district.

Outside of the partisan races, the other two notable ballot items were the chief justice race and Issue 2.

Passage of the latter created a constitutional amendment revoking the Pope County casino license. It also requires future licenses approved by voters statewide to then be subject to a special election in the county where the casino would be located.

Issue 2 passed easily across Arkansas with 55.8 percent support, but 55.7 percent of Pope County voters voted against it. In contrast, 61 percent of Pope County voters had voted against the amendment granting the casino license back when statewide voters approved it in 2018.

In other words, a majority in Pope County didn’t want the casino when voters across Arkansas passed it, but they did want the casino this year, when voters statewide cancelled it. Finally, in the chief justice race, Justice Karen Baker defeated Justice Rhonda Wood, 52.7 percent-47.3 percent.

Wood had campaigned vigorously for the position. In contrast, Baker had hardly campaigned at all — preferring instead to let her record do the talking.

Wood had called herself the “conservative” candidate.

While she avoided describing herself as a Republican, the state Republican Party had endorsed her, and Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders had donated to her campaign.

But judicial races are nonpartisan. While she may have been the closest to being a Republican in the race, she didn’t have “Republican” by her name on the ballot.

How much of a difference would that label have made?

Based on what happened elsewhere, clearly a lot.