West Memphis OEM issues Winter Outlook

“La Niña” could impact local temperatures, precipitation totals

By Ralph Hardin

ralphhardin@gmail.com

Each year, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) releases an extended forecast for the winter months, and in October NOAA issued the 2024 Winter Outlook to the National Weather Service and its affiliates. Last week, DeWayne Rose, director of the West Memphis Office of Emergency Management shared important data from the forecast with the community 'Here is your 2024 Winter Outlook for the Mid-South,' said Rose. 'As a weak La Niña is favored to emerge by the end of November and persist through March 2025, the Mid-South is likely to experience a warmer and drier winter (December-February) season.'

La Niña is a climate pattern in which the impacts (particularly precipitation) are felt more during the winter months.

'This is due to the location of the jet stream,' Rose explained. 'This winter, the jet stream is favored to support a more northerly storm track, resulting in higher chances of above-normal precipitation in the Pacific Northwest and Great Lakes region. This jet stream placement results in equal chances of above or below-normal precipitation across West Tennessee, northeast Arkansas, and the Missouri Bootheel.'

Rose said this also will likely result in below-normal precipitation (33-40% chance) across north Mississippi. Normal precipitation for the entire winter season ranges from 1216” (water equivalent of melted snow included).

'While La Niña’s impacts are mostly related to precipitation, temperatures can also be influenced,' said Rose. 'The entire Mid-South has a 3350% chance of experiencing above-normal temperatures during the December-February period. Average temperatures across the region range from 40-45? throughout the season and average snowfall across the Mid-South is generally 1-5”. Areas north of I40 average 2-5” of snow while areas to the south average only 1-2”.' Southern areas of the region can experience less snow and northern areas of the region can experience more. Climatology shows that snow across the Mid-South is most likely to occur in January and February. Northernmost areas (like Jonesboro, Arkansas, or Paris, Tennessee) have a prolonged snow season beginning in December and ending as late as March.

While there is a 30% chance of a moderate La Niña, there is only about a 5% chance of a strong La Niña.

Desiree Meadows, meteorologist and Winter Program Leader with the National Weather Service's Memphis, Tennessee office explained

See WINTER, page A2

ROSE WINTER

From page A1

some of the forecast models used to make these long-range estimates.

'Historically, comparing the most recent previous 11 weak La Niña episodes, temperatures have ranged from 6? above or below normal and precipitation has ranged from 50% below normal to 150% above normal (indicative of not a strong correlation),' said Meadows. 'The geographical location of the Mid-South relative to the prevailing jet stream can reduce the temperature- precipitation correlation, making the region highly dependent on sub-seasonal variations in weather patterns.

Nonetheless, a drier and warmer winter is expected, which is likely to result in a continuation of drought conditions and the potential for further deterioration.'

While temperatures in recent weeks have been above normal for this time of year, with some record daily highs being reported in the Mid-South, Thursday's cooling trend is expected to continue for the foreseeable future, with daytime highs in the high 60s to low 70s, overnight lows in the mid-50s, and rain in the forecast for the weekend bringing more typical seasonal temperatures to the Mid-South.